This week President Obama is ratcheting up his rhetoric about how much damage will be done to the country, and how many people will be harmed, if the sequester that he signed is allowed to come into effect. Apparently the sequester itself, a strategy that Bob Woodward tells us originated in the Obama administration, was simply a bluff.
(Note to future presidents: If you don’t really mean it, don’t sign it into legislation.)
(Note to Republican leaders: If you can get the President to take Obamacare back along with the sequester, go for it.)
But blaming the President, as Republican leadership seems to be doing, implies that there is something wrong with the sequester. There isn’t. In fact, the sequester is the first successful restraint on federal spending in almost twenty years. As such it should be celebrated, not feared.
But here’s the kicker: The sequester represents only a reduction in the increased spending scheduled for 2013, not a real cut from 2012 spending levels. Because federal spending is on auto-pilot to increase 3-4 percent each year, the sequester “cuts” aren’t even real cuts. The sequester represents only about a 2 percent reduction in overall planned federal spending in 2013, and only about a 3 percent reduction in the spending planned over the next decade. In other words, the federal government will still be spending way too much money even after the sequester “cuts.”
Nevertheless, the sequester puts real action behind the easy rhetoric of fiscal responsibility. Don’t fret the sequester—embrace it, and let’s start planning the next one.
But what about defense spending? Will our national defense be devastated by the sequester? The answer is no.
- Defense spending will never fall below 2007 levels, and will immediately grow from there.
- Defense spending in 2007 represented a 75% increase over pre-9/11 levels, and was sufficient to fight two wars.
- The sequester does not tie the hands of Congress to make additional or emergency appropriations should the need arise.
- Our national security is in far more danger from national financial weakness than from small reductions in defense spending.
Finally, for some perspective, the $85 billion sequester spending reduction in 2013 will only claw back about 10 percent of the $850 billion that was almost entirely wasted on the failed stimulus. Funny how wasting $850 billion doesn’t trouble anyone in government, but cutting 1/10th of that will cause the sky to fall. Don’t you fall for it.
On March 1st, let’s raise our glasses to celebrate some genuine progress on fiscal responsibility, and let’s start planning the next one.