‘Won't Come Back from Dead Man’s Curve.’

Just around the Templeton Curve can be found the best argument for reforming Social Security now.

The Templeton Curve, a contribution to the Social Security debate by Dr. John Templeton, Pennsylvania philanthropist and chairman of Let Freedom Ring, illustrates two starkly different futures for the Social Security system. And does it so clearly that it makes the issue perfectly understandable for the average American who is bombarded with mountains of rhetoric, much of it misleading.

As you can see by clicking here, http://www.nationalreview.com/moore/moore200502160842.asp, there are two parts to the curve.

The first part shows what will happen to Social Security if no changes are made. There will be small surpluses through about 2018, as the system takes in more in payroll taxes than it pays out in benefits. After that, it will begin to pay out more in benefits than it receives in payroll tax revenues. By 2080 or so, the deficit will be roughly $8 trillion. Let’s call it Dead Man’s Curve.

The second part is a near mirror image of the first. It begins with small deficits that run through about 2030, caused by the federal government borrowing $2 trillion over 15 years to fund transition costs to help pay for modest personal accounts (6.4%), from which future retirees will draw their retirement incomes. By drawing from their personal accounts, they won’t be pulling down Social Security benefits.

At about 2030, the deficit turns to into a surplus that is projected to be more than $1.5 trillion by 2080 – the same year Social Security will have an $8 trillion deficit if Congress does nothing.

If opponents successfully block reform, Washington will have to make up that shortfall somehow, by borrowing, hiking taxes or, what has become all the rage among some Republicans, benefits cuts.

Isn’t it better to borrow $2 trillion now rather than $8 trillion later?

Sen. John Sununu and Rep. Paul Ryan plan to introduce Social Security reform legislation that will initiate the second part of the Templeton Curve. If Congress refuses to take this step, well, as the 60’s duo Jan and Dean said, “Won't come back from Dead Man’s Curve.”