Having failed to scare — or even convince — the public about the impending doom of global warming, a new group is trying to scare businesses into action.
"Risky Business: The Economic Risk of Climate Change in the United States" is the latest we're-all-gonna-die! study. The group, called the Risky Business Project, is co-chaired by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, Jr. and retired Farallon Capital Management founder Thomas Steyer, who made part of his billions investing in fossil fuels and pipelines to transport them.
Like former Vice President Al Gore, these men own huge energy-gulping mansions and fly around often in private jets so they can lecture the rest of us about the need to reduce our carbon footprint. Little wonder most Americans ignore them.
Their new study is based more on predictive models than the observed evidence — and with a presupposition.
"Our assessment begins with the straightforward fact that human-induced climate change leads to rising temperatures."
But is it a fact?
After a gradual rise in the 1980s and 1990s, temperatures leveled off about 17 years ago, and there has been little or no global warming since, forcing the New York Times to wonder "What to Make of a Warming Plateau." And that temperature stagnation has come even in the midst of rising levels of carbon dioxide.
Chilling Out
Of course, scientists know there have been many warming periods over the centuries, so temperatures may start to climb again in the future. But some scientists are predicting a decades-long period of global cooling, a mini-Ice Age, caused in part by decreased sunspots.
Another problem with "Risky Business" is that the study conflates human trends with climate change. For example, it goes to some length to explain how rising sea levels and storm surges will impose huge economic costs on society.
No doubt they could, but is that because of climate change or more people living on the coast? People with bountiful assets often buy very expensive houses right on the beach. That means that major storms will likely have a costly economic impact, whether climate change is happening or not.
The good news is that violent storms have declined. As Weather.com points out, 2013 had the least hurricane activity since the 1990s. And USA Today reported last year that tornado activity had reached a 60-year low.
Another reason to doubt the study's conclusions: Ice is expanding at the poles. For several years concerns have been raised that the polar ice caps were melting, which would raise sea levels and exacerbate global warming. But Antarctic ice has been expanding for several years, and the Washington Post reported in September that it hit a record high.
Where's The Rain?
Now it appears that Arctic ice is increasing as well. The U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., reported in February that Arctic sea ice was expanding at record levels, with the volume growing by 50% last year.
But doesn't the yearslong drought in the Southwest indicate the climate is changing? Maybe, but rain in the Southwest, from California to Texas, is heavily influenced by the El Nino weather pattern that periodically emerges in the Pacific Ocean.
El Ninos are correlated with heavier rains in the Southwest, and there hasn't been a strong El Nino since 1997 — though scientists believe one is currently developing and are predicting above-normal rain in the Southwest this fall. Risky Business makes no mention of the El Nino/La Nina patterns.
Besides the real, observed evidence, the study also ignores the positive trends. Businesses — the intended target of the study — across the economic and political spectrum have taken steps to become greener and more energy efficient, with some striving for and advertising that they are "zero landfill companies."
In short, many businesses have already gotten the message that being a good steward of the environment is good business.
Risky Business' shopworn solution is to throw even more taxpayer money at efforts to reduce global warming.
President Obama has been doing exactly that for years with little to show for it — except more federal debt. But evidence isn't the guiding force behind Risky Business or the president's efforts; ideology is.