You’ve heard of the “October surprise,” when politicians pull some stunt right before an election to try and salvage it. Well, this year we may see a “Christmas surprise.”
The Wall Street Journal’s John Fund recently explained that Democrats are considering an ambitious lame-duck session when Congress returns after the November elections.
If Democrats lose control of the House and maybe even the Senate, their congressional leaders could return in early December with plans to tax and spend like there’s no tomorrow -- which, for them, there wouldn’t be.
If a number of Democratic incumbents has been defeated, why not “go for the gold” -- your gold, that is -- and ram through their Christmas wish list? New taxes, new spending, maybe “card check” for the unions.
But it may not be that easy.
The most vulnerable Democratic seats are in red-leaning or “purple” districts. Democrats who campaigned as fiscal conservatives, like the Blue Dogs, may see this election as a temporary correction, with a strong possibility of recapturing their seats in 2012, when President Obama will almost certainly be on the ticket again.
Breaking every campaign pledge of fiscal responsibility in a lame-duck session could come back to bite them in two years.
The second reason a tax-and-spend spree could be thwarted is that some of the so-called moderate Democrats may actually be moderate. They may really be concerned about the current levels of debt and don’t want to double down. And since they’re on their way out, the leadership couldn’t hurt them.
Finally, a Christmas Surprise could be stopped if Republicans, who hold a filibuster-proof 41 seats in the Senate, stick together. And they might get a little help from a few Democratic senators like Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who is still trying to live down his Christmas Surprise from last year, when he traded his vote for Obamacare for the now-infamous “Cornhusker kickback.”
But just because the free-spenders can’t push through a Christmas Surprise doesn’t mean the fiscally responsible should let down their guard. Because there’s one thing every fiscally responsible person knows: Christmas spending sprees are always followed by January bills.