The presidential primaries are around the corner, and there are five numbers that should have Democrats terrified: 60, 57, 68, 57 and 46.
These five numbers—percentages, actually—could doom any Democratic presidential candidate, regardless of who the Republicans nominate.
National security has become the No. 1 issue. Democrats tend to do better when the economy is at the top of voters’ concerns—as it usually is. But voters tend to favor Republicans when it comes to issues of national security. And for the time being, national security is at the top.
According to the Wall Street Journal, “Some 40% of those polled say national security and terrorism should be the government’s top priority, and more than 60% [the first number] put it in the top two, up from just 39% eight months ago.”
The public disapproves of Obama’s anti-terrorism efforts. Also dragging down Democrats’ chances is President Obama’s handling of terrorism challenges, which has only served to confirm the pro-Republican bias mentioned above.
A new Pew Research Center poll finds that 57 percent [the second number] of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of terrorism, up from 20 percent in 2011. Only 37 percent approve of his actions, though that number had been 69 percent in 2011.
The problem for Hillary Clinton is that she is locked at the hip with Obama on terrorism and foreign policy. Importantly, the president’s decline in approval began while she was still head of the State Department.
There is a lot of time left for the public’s priorities to shift back to the economy. But there is also a lot of time for ISIS or ISIS-inspired terrorists to perpetrate even more attacks in or against the U.S. If they do, we could see a pro-security wave election in 2016, which would likely turn into a Democratic rout.
The public thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction. Rasmussen regularly polls the public on whether voters think the country is headed in the right or wrong direction. It’s latest poll has 68 percent [the third number] thinking the country is headed in the wrong direction, while only 24 percent say its on the right course.
Those disastrous numbers might be understandable if the country were just exiting a recession, but the recession ended in the summer of 2009.
Voters will want to know how Clinton will turn things around. But she is as tied to Obama’s failed economic and social policies as she is to his foreign policies.
The public doesn’t trust Clinton. Another problem facing Hillary Clinton is one that has dogged her for years: trust—or more specifically, the lack of it. A Quinnipiac poll last summer found that only 37 percent of the public see Clinton as “honest and trustworthy,” while 57 percent [the fourth number] don’t. And there’s every reason to think her numbers will continue to fall.
Exhibit No. 1: Recent revelations that Clinton did indeed have at least two “top secret” emails on her server, contradicting her repeated denials that she ever used her personal server for classified information.
The Obamacare millstone. Obamacare has been unpopular since its passage in March 2010, and it remains so. TheKaiser Health Tracking Poll shows that favorability had risen to 43 percent last July, while unfavorability had fallen to 40 percent—one of the few times that more people were in the favorable category. But since then, the numbers have reversed, with 40 percent favorable and 46 percent [the fifth number] unfavorable.
Why the reversal? I suspect it has to do with millions of people having their policies canceled this fall, and having to pay more money for less coverage. And here’s the clincher: The country will see another round of policy cancelations and premium hikes next October, right before an election where Clinton is the Obamacare defender.
If you are a Democrat and you aren’t terrified by these numbers you should be. These polls indicate a disillusioned and disappointed electorate who will likely take out their frustrations on the party that has controlled the White House for eight long years.
There might still be time for Obama to change course and improve those five numbers, but that would mean admitting that he’s wrong. And we all know that won’t happen.