DALLAS – While economic news is very positive at nearly the two-year mark of the Trump administration, don’t take the pundits’ words for it—let the data speak for itself.
In Trend Tracker: A Snapshot of the Trump Economy, released today by the Institute for Policy Innovation, 10 graphs presenting economic data, consumer confidence and public opinion paint an irrefutable picture of the economic improvements made by the current administration’s market-oriented agenda.
“Policies matter,” said IPI resident scholar Merrill Matthews, Ph.D. “We believe the data indicate that the strong economy is a direct result of President Trump’s and the Republican-led Congress’s efforts to reduce taxes and regulations.”
Trend Tracker’s collection of data illustrate how, for example:
- Civilian unemployment is under 4 percent for the first time since the year 2000;
- The number of workers receiving unemployment benefits dropped by about 100,000 during President Trump’s first year in office, and then stunningly dropped an additional 300,000 in just eight months following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act;
- Overall manufacturing output now rivals its 2007 historic high;
- The NFIB’s Business Optimism Index, tracked since 1976, has reached a record high;
- Gallup’s Consumer Economic Confidence levels are at a record high;
- The S&P 500, also at a record high, has gained a third of its total value in just the past 22 months; and
- According to Rasmussen, a much larger percentage of the public see the country moving in the right direction under President Trump than did under President Obama.
Despite the positive signs, there are at least two warning flags—government debt and the growing trade war. “No one knows for sure how much longer the spending binge can continue before it begins to significantly affect economic growth; it may already be a drag on the economy,” said Matthews. “Regarding the trade war, its outcome and impact at this point remain uncertain, but it will almost certainly create some economic headwinds.”
“While the post-recession economy gradually improved under President Obama, it was never going far or fast because he constantly applied the policy brakes,” said Matthews. “But Trump has embraced a free market approach of lowering taxes, reducing regulations and unshackling employers. The graphs demonstrate the result—a strong upward trend in economic growth and confidence.”
The Institute for Policy Innovation is an independent, nonprofit public policy organization based in Dallas. Copies of “Trend Tracker: A Snapshot of the Trump Economy” are available at IPI.org. IPI resident scholar Dr. Merrill Matthews is available for interview by contacting Erin Humiston at (972) 874-5139, or erin@ipi.org.