Here's a thought experiment: What if environmentalists had convinced Boston city officials that fossil fuels were destroying the planet and that renewable energy sources could supply the city's needs both in electricity generation and for powering city vehicles?
The past several weeks have seen back-to-back winter snowstorms in New England, as well as much of the Midwest, with plunging temperatures and seven feet of snow already in many parts of Massachusetts. So how would the city fare under a green energy-only policy?
The notion that elected officials would impose renewable energy mandates on utilities is not far-fetched — because they've been doing that for years.
According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, environmentalists and lobbyists have convinced 29 states to adopt "renewable portfolio standards" that require utilities to sell a specific percentage or amount of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power.
California requires utilities to produce a third of its electricity from renewable sources by 2020, and Maine is supposed to reach 40% by 2017. So the idea of convincing a state, or city, to go 100% renewable energy may not be far off.
What would be the impact?
Let's begin with heating. Bostonians wouldn't be able to use heating oil or natural gas because those are fossil fuels, so electricity would most likely depend on wind and solar. But when snowstorms keep coming, there's very little sunshine, and acres of solar panels would likely be covered in snow.
Battery Power
The Bay State has been pushing wind farms, especially offshore, but those efforts have hit some bumps. For example, the plan to put 130 electricity-generating windmills in Nantucket Sound, known as the Cape Wind project, has collapsed, even though the project's promoters convinced state officials the effort was affordable and achievable.
But after securing a $780 million taxpayer-funded Production Tax Credit and a $150 million loan guarantee from the U.S. government to build the windmills, the two utilities that were willing to pay above-market prices for that energy — which would be passed on to consumers in higher electricity prices — pulled out of the deal, saying project administrators misled them.
And then there's city vehicles. All those city-owned trucks that are desperately struggling to clear the streets, spending long hours scooping up snow and transporting it to the countryside would be limited to the time and distance a fully charged battery would provide.
Unfortunately, batteries don't get electric vehicles very far on a single charge, between 50 and 80 miles — and that's for very lightweight cars, not heavy machinery like snowplows and dump trucks.
The snowplows would likely have to keep returning to home base frequently for a recharge. And dump trucks hauling the snow out of the city couldn't take it very far or they would never make it back. The result is that the city would need at least two sets of vehicles, so some could be working while the others were recharging — if there were enough.
Fossil Fuels Dominate
In short, city life in blizzards would quickly turn into city death without fossil fuels. Thankfully, Bostonians — and all Americans — have ready access to fossil fuels to heat (and cool) their homes and to power their cars and trucks, including city vehicles.
Americans' need for fossil fuels becomes particularly strong as the temperature drops. During winter 2013-14, daily U.S. natural gas demand spiked to record highs. From January to March 2014, overall natural gas demand increased 8% over the same period in 2013. Residential and commercial demand jumped by 15%.
Fossil fuels provide 67% of our electricity today and 81.6% of total energy consumed; there is no feasible way to replace that for decades to come — if ever. Even the federal government's Energy Information Administration estimates that renewable energy sources will supply only 16% by 2040.
Yet Tom Steyer, who owes much of his fortune to his multimillion-dollar investments in oil and gas, and other environmentalists continue to bash the industry, trying to persuade lawmakers — and voters — that it's time to dump the pump.
Surely they know better. Alternative sources simply can't create enough energy to help Americans through blizzards and extreme winters. Just ask the snowed-in citizens of Boston.