Who's for the Middle Class? A Look at States by Median Income

We will no doubt hear a lot in the presidential debate about which candidate is "fighting for the middle class."  President Obama has tried to make that issue one of his defining themes, while repeatedly portraying Governor Romney as being a rich, out-of-touch Wall Streeter who doesn't care about middle-class Americans.

Governor Romney has responded by frequently mentioning the middle class, denying that he would do anything to hurt safety-net programs and explaining how his economic policies would benefit them.

Whose message is resonating most with the middle class?

One way to look at it is to see which states will likely side with Obama and which ones for Romney by state median income (national median income is about $50,000 for a family).

The 10 states with the lowest median income (2011, U.S. Census Bureau) in ascending order are: Mississippi ($39,078), Arkansas, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, Alabama, Kentucky, West Virginia, Louisiana and New Mexico ($44,732).

By contrast, the 10 states with the highest median income, in descending order are: Maryland ($67,469), New Hampshire, Connecticut, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Virginia, Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii and Washington ($59,370).

Of the 10 lowest-income states, all but one, New Mexico, will almost certainly vote for Romney. Of the 10 highest-income states, Alaska is the only certain Romney state. New Hampshire, Virginia and Colorado are toss-ups. The rest are solid blue.

Or look at those states where the median income is equal to the national median income or less (in descending order): Pennsylvania ($50,087), Maine, Texas, Idaho, Arizona, Michigan, Missouri, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Kansas, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina ($44,787), plus the 10 lowest mentioned above.

Of those states, Maine will likely vote for Obama (though it now has a Republican governor, state House and state Senate, as well as two moderate Republican senators). But every other state is either red or a swing state (Michigan and Florida).

So while both sides will claim to be standing up for the middle class, it appears that the large majority of states with a median income equal to or less than the national average will be standing up for Romney.