Economic Growth

The latest “wisdom” about the government shutdown is that the impasse is making the U.S. a laughing stock around the world. If there is any country laughing at the U.S., it’s either a hypocrite or it hasn’t looked at its own financial situation—or that of many other countries. 

The new unemployment numbers are out and the best we can say is, well, actually there isn’t much good we can say. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy added 169,000 jobs last month, but that’s about 10,000 lower than may economists were predicting.

Unemployment fell from 7.4 percent to 7.3 percent, which looks god initially, but that’s because so many more Americans quit looking for work.

The Dallas Fed put out a very interesting paper (PDF) in July in which they try to quantify the damage done by the 2007-09 financial crisis. Don’t go looking to this paper to find anything about the “cause” or “roots” of the crisis, or how to get out of it, or whether the right policies were followed, etc. No, they’re just trying to quantify the costs to the economy, which is valid and interesting in itself.

They come up with some astonishingly large numbers. Without going into enormous detail here (you can read the paper yourself if you have an appetite for enormous detail), they find that the cost of the financial crisis is at least 40-90% of a full year’s (2007) economic output for the United States. I say “at least” because, after they have figured in a few other factors they believe are valid, they conclude that “what the U.S. gave up as a result of the crisis is likely greater than the value of one year’s output.”

That’s between $6 trillion and $14 trillion lost, or the equivalent of $50,000 to $120,000 for every U.S. household. Now it seems big.

I was talking with a lady, who is probably in her late 50s, when she told me she was going to start looking for a different job. See, she’s a teller working in the branch of one of the country’s largest banks, and the bank is making some cutbacks, turning its full-time tellers into part-timers (at some branches anyway).

I asked the next question, but I was pretty sure I already knew the answer: How many hours was the bank willing to let her work? Under 30, she said, which just so happens to be ObamaCare’s dividing line between those who must be covered with employer-provided health insurance and those who don’t.

While the House Judiciary Committee is certainly busy with a raft of issues these days, sooner or later they will continue to hold hearings about the copyright system in the U.S., considering how it works in an age of rapidly advancing technology, business models, an ever growing pool of content and new means to access that content.

Ever since passage of the Budget Control Act of 2011, most people have assumed that, eventually, some sort of deal would get done. Both sides have something to lose, the thinking went, so both sides will eventually compromise to spare the country from going over the fiscal cliff.

And everyone also assumed that, while the outcome of the election would tilt the balance of power, still both sides had something to lose, so a deal would get done.

And that makes sense, if you assume both sides have something to lose.

But what if, even before the election, one side thought it did NOT have much to lose? What if, in fact, one side thought it had almost nothing to lose and much to gain, and the outcome of the election simply confirmed this calculation? What then?

Good stuff from Alan Reynolds at Cato:

In the real world of politics, however, Congress and the White House use borrowed money to placate constituencies with the most political clout. Federal spending on investment projects has essentially nothing to do with the huge 2009-2012 budget deficits (only 29 percent of which can be blamed on the legacy of recession, according to the CBO).

According to an opinion piece in today's Politico, Mitt Romney has revealed that he is a Keynesian. Is Romney a Keynesian? Is that a problem? And is anyone surprised?

It's been announced that the next round of Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations will be held in San Diego July 2-10, 2012.

The free-market position has always been that minimum wage laws actually put people out of work by raising the marginal cost of employing a "marginal" employee. This helps deny to young, inexperienced, low-skilled workers those bottom couple of rungs on the employment ladder.

Nobel Prize Alert: Robert Reich has discovered a new economic law: 

"Without the government as competition, the private sector has little incentive to improve."

This is truly breathtaking. As it turns out, it's not the private sector that drives innovation, growth and efficiency, it's the government.